Green House Hot Air

If people have difficulties in believing in the Green House effect, blame the weather. Not that I don’t believe in it myself – I just think that the warm weather has employed the same PR experts who recommended Osama Bin Laden to send out a video a few days before the last presidential election in the US.

So what has made me think so? Let us review what has happened in the last months.

» Neoconservatives and right-wing Christian group are apparently advocating that driving a car suited for off-road driving in jungles and deserts with a fuel consumption equal to that of a small nation may not be the right thing to do. The Christians are worried that the green house effect may be damaging God’s creation and neoconservatives are worried about the dependence on oil from other – potentially not too friendly – countries. That should definitely help on reducing emissions. (Read: «Waking up and catching up» The Economist, January 25th 2007)

» The carmakers and oil companies are advocating green initiatives themselves. The motives could be many and varied – but probably with some aim on the bottom line. If someone decides to set up pro-environment initiatives, it’s better to make money off it than loose money because of it. That isn’t wrong either. Economics – and the world in general – works that way. Action follows the incentives. I am just sorry we didn’t set up the incentives earlier. Whatever the motivations, this is another positive for the environmentalists.

» One final incentive regards the direct financial loses that could arise from changes in the global climate. OECD is warning that tourism revenue from ski resorts may be a thing of the past in several European countries, as the rise in temperatures could eliminate the snow – and hence the skiing. And great wines may in the future not come from Italy, Greece, or Southern California but perhaps you would like a nice vintage from Cornwall or Niagara Falls? It will definitely upset the people who are currently making a living off skiing and wine. (Read: «OECD warns climate change is threatening Europe's skiing trade» OECD, December 13th 2006 and «Climate shifts will change the future of vintages» Worlds of Wine, April 21st 2004)

With all these incentives, it is perhaps not so surprising that traditional environmental lobbies, politicians and industry alike all talked the same talk. And the scene was perfect: no snow in Davos, as people started to arrive. No snow at the ski resort of Davos. It could not be any better. The scene is set. (Read: «Can this really be Davos?» BBC's Tim Weber, January 23rd 2007)

And this is where everything starts to fall apart. Just as everyone is settled in and ready for the Davos experience and a focus on global warming, it starts to snow!

I still believe that there is something to the notion of global warming, but it looks ridiculous when people discuss it with reporters live on BBC while they huddle up in thick winter coats around the microphone because they apparently are in the middle of a blizzard.

It just isn’t very sensible PR on behalf of Mother Nature.